Swaps charts: from bitcoin to $ and from $ to bitcoin
bitcoin spot price: $7,899
Swaps released daily at 16:15 UTC.
|Date||From bitcoin to $ (in %)||From $ to bitcoin (in %)|
|2019-05-20||not yet released|
17/05/2019: CBOE futures cessation.
CBOE’s last bitcoin futures offering will mature on 16th June. Bitcoin to $ swaps will exclude inputs from CBOE data from 14th June. Bitcoin to $ swaps will become more volatile but perhaps easier to read.
01/05/2019: Bitcoin price peak likely reached.
From 21/2, increases in $ to bitcoin swaps, indicating 'bitcoin bullishness,' had been rising, with bitcoin at $3,890 at the time. This bullishness was confirmed on 9/4 when bitcoin to $ swaps started falling, with bitcoin at $5,188. However, $ to bitcoin swaps have started falling sharply, moving from +0.03% to -1.0% over the past seven days. Furthermore, bitcoin to $ swaps have started rising sharply from -1.0% to -0.2% over the past three days. This indicates that bitcoin's price has likely peaked and will fall sharply, currently $5,291.
09/04/2019: Bitcoin to $ swaps update.
Bitcoin to $ swaps have started falling with $ to bitcoin swaps continuing to rise. Bitcoin ‘bullishness’ mentioned on 21/2 update, with bitcoin at $3,890 has been ‘doubly confirmed.’
Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have decided to discontinue bitcoin futures. The June contract will be the last contract. This will effect bitcoin to $ swaps calculations and adjustments will be made accordingly.
21/02/2019: $ to bitcoin swaps update.
$ to bitcoin swaps have been moving higher and turned into positive territory recently. This hasn’t been seen since November 2018 and is ‘bullish’ for bitcoin. However, this bullishness is tempered by bitcoin to $ swaps also rising. $3,890.
11/02/2019: Swaps update
Last update from 19th January re-iterated. $3,604.
19/01/2019: Swaps update.
Bitcoin to $ swaps have formed a firm uptrend in conjunction with $ to bitcoin swaps forming a solid downtrend since December 2018. This indicates that bitcoin is likely to head substantially lower against $ from its current level of $3,701.
$ to bitcoin swap, indicating market preference to switch from $ to bitcoin, is at its lowest level since 30th March (marked with an exclamation on the swaps chart.) Bitcoin's price (ie exchange v. $) reached a low of $6,463 on 4th April and had advanced to $9,956 by 5th May. Bitcoin to $ swap has been falling broadly since early November, indicating market 'interest' isn't fundamentally moving away from bitcoin over $. $3,266.
Following bitcoin's price move lower, $ to bitcoin swaps have fallen in conjunction with bitcoin to $ swaps falling. This signals no fundamental change in stance to previous commentary $5,529.
30/10/2018: Swaps update.
Bitcoin to $ swaps rise in conjunction with $ to bitcoin swaps falling sharply. Previous updates reinforced. $6,254.
15/10/2018: Bitcoin to $ swaps movement.
Bitcoin to $ swaps falling in conjunction with bitcoin’s price fall. Last update re-iterated. $6,410.
09/10/2018: Swap movements.
$ to bitcoin swaps continue to rise with bitcoin to $ swaps falling today. Breakout higher for bitcoin building. $6,571.
08/10/2018: Swaps movement.
Move higher in bitcoin to $ swaps accompanying move higher in $ to bitcoin swaps. Bitcoin rally not ‘doubly confirmed.’ $6,620.
04/10/2018: $ to bitcoin swap movement.
Move higher in $ to bitcoin swaps. $6,552.
22/09/2018: Swaps update.
Bitcoin to $ swaps rising in conjunction with $ to bitcoin swaps rising. Short term bitcoin rally not doubly confirmed; last update reiterated. $6,711.
14/09/2018: Swaps description.
Bitcoin to $ swaps not falling with short term price rise and $ to bitcoin swaps not rising. $6,521.