Swaps charts: from bitcoin to $ and from $ to bitcoin
bitcoin spot price: $11,497
Swaps released daily at 16:15 UTC.
|Date||From bitcoin to $ (in %)||From $ to bitcoin (in %)|
|2020-08-13||not yet released|
28/07/2020: Buy or sell bitcoin at $10,789?
From 20th June, $-to-bitcoin swaps advanced from +0.55% to +2.9% as of yesterday. On 10th July, $-to-bitcoin swaps overtook bitcoin-to-$ swaps and subsequently bitcoin has advanced from $9,278 then to $10,789 as of writing. However, as $-to-bitcoin swaps have been advancing, bitcoin-to-$ swaps have also been advancing rapidly indicating that this rally in bitcoin is likely to be ephemeral. Message from 22/02/20 is re-iterated.
22/02/2020: First update of 2020.
Merry new year. From the last update of October 30th, 2019, when bitcoin-to-$ swaps were 1.36% and $-to-bitcoin swaps at 1.41%, we have witnessed advances in both to 2.52% and 2.20% respectively as of 21st February 2020. What does this mean? Essentially, for any interest into bitcoin, there's an equal and opposite interest out of bitcoin. Furthermore, where bitcoin-to-$ swaps were lower than $-to-bitcoin swaps at 30th October, they're higher as of yesterday. All of this points to substantial price declines ahead for bitcoin, with previous updates re-iterated. Bitcoin spot, $9,635.
30/10/2019: General note on swaps.
Bitcoin-to-$ swaps repeat Friday's value on Saturday and Sunday as some markets used to calculate the swap level are closed. However, $-to-bitcoin swaps do not have this issue.
16/10/2019: $-to-bitcoin swaps head lower.
12th August's update pointed to 'bitcoin bearish' swap signals being posted. $11,332 at the time, bitcoin is currently $7,930. On 12th August, $-to-bitcoin swaps were +1.98%. Since then, they have fallen 102bps to +0.96%. Bitcoin-to-$ swaps have only fallen by 90bps from +2.52% to +1.62%. Any interest into bitcoin (from $) is not being evidenced as bitcoin's price falls. Accordingly, bitcoin has much further to fall.
12/08/2019: Swaps update.
Since 15th July, $-to-bitcoin swaps have advanced from 1.12% to 2.01% (+89bps) as of 9th August. This, ceteris paribus, is bitcoin v. $ 'bullish.' However, all other things 'are not equal' - as bitcoin-to-$ swaps have advanced from 1.64% to 2.62% (+98bps) - which is bitcoin v. $ 'bearish' - and of a 'greater magnitude' than bitcoin 'bullisness.'
After 15th July's 'bearish' bitcoin message, with bitcoin at $10,382, it fell to a low of $9,135 by 28th July. Currently $11,332, 15th July's bearish stance is re-iterated.
$ to bitcoin swaps, indicating the intensity of market preference for bitcoin over $, are currently at +1.32% and have been falling since 2nd July's +3.4%. This is 'bitcoin bearish' and confirms themes established in prior updates. Bitcoin spot: $10,382.
26/06/2019: Bitcoin bullishness or futures speculation?
Bitcoin has 'advanced' over the past few days, but bitcoin-to-$ movements indicate this advance was driven by CME futures trading - which represents speculation in bitcoin's price over an 'intrinsic' reason to 'own' bitcoin over dollars. Buying bitcoin puts, as well as perhaps outright short bitcoin remains the current trade. Bitcoin spot $13,220.
17/06/2019: Swaps update.
CBOE have ceased their bitcoin futures offer. On 16th June, as bitcoin was rallying towards $9,300, bitcoin-to-$ swaps reached -8.2%, as $-to-bitcoin swaps reached +1.2% - unquestionably bullish bitcoin. But how much more bullish can it get? The last time such a bitcoin-bullish signal was achieved in bitcoin-to-$ swaps was July 2018, over the course of which bitcoin rallied 30%, before falling over 50%. Previous bitcoin-bearish updates are re-iterated.
04/06/2019: $-to-bitcoin swaps update.
From 28th May’s update, $-to-bitcoin swaps appear to have peaked at 2.3% and currently stand at 0.95%. 28th May’s update is reiterated. Bitcoin spot: $7,955.
$-to-bitcoin swaps, indicating (one aspect of) bitcoin 'bullishness,' stopped falling on 2nd May, having reached a low of -1.12%. They currently stand at +2.34% - a level not seen since 9th May 2018, when bitcoin 'closed' at $9,213. However, bitcoin-to-$ swaps, indicating bitcoin 'bearishness,' have soared sharply from-0.4% to +10.5%; a level not recorded before. As a result, bitcoin's rally from 1st May's update (with bitcoin at $5,291) cannot be given credence. Message from 1st May is re-iterated. Bitcoin spot: $8,742.
17/05/2019: CBOE futures cessation.
CBOE’s last bitcoin futures offering will mature on 16th June. Bitcoin to $ swaps will exclude inputs from CBOE data from 14th June. Bitcoin to $ swaps will become more volatile but perhaps easier to read.
01/05/2019: Bitcoin price peak likely reached.
From 21/2, increases in $ to bitcoin swaps, indicating 'bitcoin bullishness,' had been rising, with bitcoin at $3,890 at the time. This bullishness was confirmed on 9/4 when bitcoin to $ swaps started falling, with bitcoin at $5,188. However, $ to bitcoin swaps have started falling sharply, moving from +0.03% to -1.0% over the past seven days. Furthermore, bitcoin to $ swaps have started rising sharply from -1.0% to -0.2% over the past three days. This indicates that bitcoin's price has likely peaked and will fall sharply, currently $5,291.
09/04/2019: Bitcoin to $ swaps update.
Bitcoin to $ swaps have started falling with $ to bitcoin swaps continuing to rise. Bitcoin ‘bullishness’ mentioned on 21/2 update, with bitcoin at $3,890 has been ‘doubly confirmed.’
Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have decided to discontinue bitcoin futures. The June contract will be the last contract. This will effect bitcoin to $ swaps calculations and adjustments will be made accordingly.
21/02/2019: $ to bitcoin swaps update.
$ to bitcoin swaps have been moving higher and turned into positive territory recently. This hasn’t been seen since November 2018 and is ‘bullish’ for bitcoin. However, this bullishness is tempered by bitcoin to $ swaps also rising. $3,890.
11/02/2019: Swaps update
Last update from 19th January re-iterated. $3,604.
19/01/2019: Swaps update.
Bitcoin to $ swaps have formed a firm uptrend in conjunction with $ to bitcoin swaps forming a solid downtrend since December 2018. This indicates that bitcoin is likely to head substantially lower against $ from its current level of $3,701.
$ to bitcoin swap, indicating market preference to switch from $ to bitcoin, is at its lowest level since 30th March (marked with an exclamation on the swaps chart.) Bitcoin's price (ie exchange v. $) reached a low of $6,463 on 4th April and had advanced to $9,956 by 5th May. Bitcoin to $ swap has been falling broadly since early November, indicating market 'interest' isn't fundamentally moving away from bitcoin over $. $3,266.
Following bitcoin's price move lower, $ to bitcoin swaps have fallen in conjunction with bitcoin to $ swaps falling. This signals no fundamental change in stance to previous commentary $5,529.
30/10/2018: Swaps update.
Bitcoin to $ swaps rise in conjunction with $ to bitcoin swaps falling sharply. Previous updates reinforced. $6,254.
15/10/2018: Bitcoin to $ swaps movement.
Bitcoin to $ swaps falling in conjunction with bitcoin’s price fall. Last update re-iterated. $6,410.
09/10/2018: Swap movements.
$ to bitcoin swaps continue to rise with bitcoin to $ swaps falling today. Breakout higher for bitcoin building. $6,571.
08/10/2018: Swaps movement.
Move higher in bitcoin to $ swaps accompanying move higher in $ to bitcoin swaps. Bitcoin rally not ‘doubly confirmed.’ $6,620.
04/10/2018: $ to bitcoin swap movement.
Move higher in $ to bitcoin swaps. $6,552.
22/09/2018: Swaps update.
Bitcoin to $ swaps rising in conjunction with $ to bitcoin swaps rising. Short term bitcoin rally not doubly confirmed; last update reiterated. $6,711.
14/09/2018: Swaps description.
Bitcoin to $ swaps not falling with short term price rise and $ to bitcoin swaps not rising. $6,521.